El Niño Advisory Oceanic Niño Index +2.46 °C · very strong NOAA, 12 November 2026 Next update 10 December 2026
How's the Climate
Regional six-month outlook

South-Eastern Asia

Rainfall and temperature odds for December–February, and what past El Niños did in the same season, for all 11 countries and territories.

CountryRainfall, December–FebruaryDrier / normal / wetterPast El NiñosTemperature
Brunei Darussalam Likely drier >95% / <5% / <5% 12 of 15 drier Likely warmer
Cambodia Likely drier 65% / 27% / 8% No clear pattern Likely warmer
Indonesia Leaning wetter 18% / 39% / 43% No clear pattern Likely warmer
Lao PDR No clear signal 29% / 38% / 33% No clear pattern Likely warmer
Malaysia Likely drier 94% / 6% / <5% 11 of 15 drier Likely warmer
Myanmar Leaning drier 41% / 39% / 20% No clear pattern Likely warmer
Philippines Likely drier >95% / <5% / <5% 15 of 15 drier Likely warmer
Singapore Likely wetter <5% / 31% / 67% No clear pattern Likely warmer
Thailand No clear signal 35% / 45% / 20% No clear pattern Likely warmer
Timor-Leste Likely drier 61% / 25% / 14% 11 of 15 drier Likely warmer
Vietnam Likely drier 61% / 31% / 8% No clear pattern Likely warmer

Sources: Copernicus Climate Change Service (seasonal forecast, ERA5); NOAA Climate Prediction Center (El Niño seasons). Methods