Indonesia
The forecast leans towards a wetter-than-normal December–February in Indonesia (43% chance). Past El Niño years show no consistent rainfall pattern here.
Leaning wetter
18% drier · 39% normal · 43% wetter
Likely warmer
>95% chance of warmer than 1993–2016
No clear pattern
-1% rainfall on average, 1979-2025
189 Unhealthy
Worst day: Bekasi, 15 November 2026
Current events in Indonesia
- FloodAdvisoryFlood in Indonesia. GDACS alert level: Green. Started 24 October 2026.GDACSUpdated 15 Nov, 15:21 UTC
- Air qualityAdvisoryUnhealthy air forecast in Surabaya, Indonesia. Reading: AQI 168 on 2026-11-18. Started 16 November 2026.Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring ServiceUpdated 14 Nov, 00:00 UTC
- Air qualityAdvisoryUnhealthy air forecast in Jakarta, Indonesia. Reading: AQI 159 on 2026-11-17. Started 14 November 2026.Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring ServiceUpdated 14 Nov, 00:00 UTC
- Air qualityAdvisoryUnhealthy air forecast in Bekasi, Indonesia. Reading: AQI 189 on 2026-11-15. Started 14 November 2026.Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring ServiceUpdated 14 Nov, 00:00 UTC
- Air qualityAdvisoryUnhealthy air forecast in Bandung, Indonesia. Reading: AQI 168 on 2026-11-16. Started 14 November 2026.Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring ServiceUpdated 14 Nov, 00:00 UTC
Not an official alert. Events from GDACS, NASA EONET and the Copernicus air-quality forecast, last 30 days.
Headlines about Indonesia
- Regional platform to tackle haze among ways for ASEAN to manage differences amicably: PM Wongstraitstimes.com · 15 Nov
- RI hides behind growth argument as world reneges on climate pledgesthejakartapost.com · 15 Nov
- Asean FMs urge speedy operationalisation of transboundary haze control hubthestar.com.my · 15 Nov
- PM Wong pushes for ASEAN-wide crackdown on firms behind forest firesasiaone.com · 15 Nov
- Carbon trading confirms Indonesia's progress in cutting emissionsantaranews.com · 15 Nov
- Indonesia was frank on steps taken over forest fires, ASEAN bloc chair Philippine saysphilstar.com · 15 Nov
Found through the GDELT Project by climate words in the headline. We do not write or check these articles.
The next six months
Odds of each outcome compared with the 1993–2016 average.
December–February
February–April
In the tropics, seasonal forecasts generally have useful skill during strong El Niño years, but they give odds, not certainties. “Normal” is the middle third of the model's own 1993–2016 range. Because the climate has warmed since then, “warmer” is the usual result almost everywhere.
Source: Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) seasonal forecasts, ECMWF system 51, country average. Method
What Indonesia emits, and how it makes electricity
Indonesia emitted 821.8 million tonnes of carbon dioxide from fossil fuels and industry in 2025, 2.11% of the world total, or 2.9 tonnes per person. That is up 422% since 1990.
821.8 Mt
2.9 t
+422%
+133%
Electricity by source, 2024
- Coal 62%
- Gas 18%
- Other fossil 2%
- Hydro 7%
- Wind <1%
- Solar <1%
- Other renewables 10%
Source: Our World in Data, based on the Global Carbon Project, Ember and the Energy Institute (CC BY 4.0). CO2 from fossil fuels and industry; land use not included.
Smoke and haze, next 4 days
Daily average fine particles (PM2.5) on the US EPA air-quality index.
| City | Nov 15 | Nov 16 | Nov 17 | Nov 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JakartaCapital | 141Sensitive | 153Unhealthy | 159Unhealthy | 129Sensitive |
| Surabaya | 128Sensitive | 153Unhealthy | 163Unhealthy | 168Unhealthy |
| Bandung | 164Unhealthy | 168Unhealthy | 155Unhealthy | 164Unhealthy |
| Bekasi | 189Unhealthy | 176Unhealthy | 168Unhealthy | 163Unhealthy |
| Medan | 77Moderate | 98Moderate | 86Moderate | 75Moderate |
AQI: US EPA 24-hour PM2.5 scale (2024). Model forecast for an area of about 40 km, not a local measurement. Local levels can be higher or lower. Dates are UTC days. Source: Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, run 2026-11-14 00 UTC.
What past El Niños did here
Each season in El Niño years compared with all other years, 1979-2025, trend removed.
| Season | Rainfall | Rainfall detail | Temperature |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec–Feb | No consistent pattern (about 1% less rain on average) | +0.2 °C | |
| Jan–Mar | No consistent pattern (about 2% less rain on average) | +0.3 °C | |
| Feb–Apr | No consistent pattern (about 0% less rain on average) | +0.4 °C | |
| Mar–May | No consistent pattern (about 0% more rain on average) | +0.3 °C | |
| Apr–Jun | No consistent pattern (about 4% less rain on average) | +0.1 °C | |
| May–Jul | Drier in 7 of 9 El Niño seasons (about 16% less rain on average) | +0.1 °C | |
| Jun–Aug | Drier in 8 of 8 El Niño seasons (about 32% less rain on average) | +0.1 °C | |
| Jul–Sep | Drier in 9 of 9 El Niño seasons (about 37% less rain on average) | +0.1 °C | |
| Aug–Oct | Drier in 12 of 12 El Niño seasons (about 35% less rain on average) | +0.1 °C | |
| Sep–Nov | Drier in 14 of 15 El Niño seasons (about 28% less rain on average) | +0.1 °C | |
| Oct–Dec | Drier in 14 of 15 El Niño seasons (about 15% less rain on average) | +0.2 °C | |
| Nov–Jan | Drier in 11 of 15 El Niño seasons (about 6% less rain on average) | +0.2 °C |
Bars: brown is drier, teal is wetter; full width is ±100%. Source: ERA5 reanalysis (Copernicus Climate Change Service); El Niño seasons from NOAA's Oceanic Niño Index. Method
Known El Niño effects in Indonesia
From national agencies and the UN. Each line links to its source.
- Typical pattern
El Niño typically brings less rain to Indonesia. Climate.gov, 'Can We Blame El Niño?' (archived page, 2009)
Fires in Southeast Asia often accompany El Niño events, and people in Indonesia tend to link El Niño with drought. Climate.gov, 'Can We Blame El Niño?' (archived page, 2009)
- Past events
- Indonesia's 2015 fire crisis was estimated to cost US$16.1 billion, or 2% of GDP, over a five-month period. World Bank (Glauber et al., 2016), 'The Cost of Fire', abstract via FAO AGRIS
- An estimated 2.6 million hectares burned in Indonesia in 2015, about four times the size of Bali. World Bank (Glauber et al., 2016), 'The Cost of Fire', abstract via FAO AGRIS
What you can do
If it turns out wetter
- Find out whether your home, school or workplace is in a flood-risk area, and know your evacuation route.
- Clear gutters and drains before the rainy months.
- Keep important documents, medicines and a torch in a waterproof bag.
- After heavy rain, avoid walking or driving through flood water and follow local advice on drinking water and mosquito-borne disease.
If it turns out hotter
- Check on older relatives, neighbours and anyone who lives alone during hot spells.
- Drink water regularly, and avoid hard outdoor work in the hottest hours.
- Know the signs of heat exhaustion (dizziness, headache, nausea) and when to get medical help.
On smoky or hazy days
- Check the daily air-quality forecast and cut down hard outdoor exercise when it is 'Unhealthy' or worse.
- A well-fitted N95 or KN95 mask reduces smoke exposure; cloth and surgical masks do much less.
- Keep windows closed and use an air purifier with a HEPA filter if you have one.
- People with asthma, heart or lung disease, older people, children and pregnant people should take extra care.
Data and citation
- El Niño status: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, 12 November 2026.
- Seasonal outlook: Copernicus Climate Change Service, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) seasonal forecasts, ECMWF system 51, issued November 2026.
- Air quality: Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, run 2026-11-14 00 UTC.
- Past El Niños: ERA5 (Copernicus Climate Change Service), 1979-2025; NOAA Oceanic Niño Index.
Cite as: “Seasonal outlook for Indonesia”, How's the Climate, https://howstheclimate.org/country/indonesia/, updated 15 November 2026.
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