Thailand
There is no clear El Niño rainfall signal for Thailand in December–February. The forecast and the historical record are both close to normal.
No clear signal
35% drier · 45% normal · 20% wetter
Likely warmer
>95% chance of warmer than 1993–2016
No clear pattern
-23% rainfall on average, 1979-2025
79 Moderate
Worst day: Bangkok, 18 November 2026
Current events in Thailand
- FloodAdvisoryFlood in Thailand. GDACS alert level: Green. Started 6 November 2026.GDACSUpdated 14 Nov, 11:06 UTC
Not an official alert. Events from GDACS, NASA EONET and the Copernicus air-quality forecast, last 30 days.
Headlines about Thailand
- From Sensor to Settlement: Universities Make the Case for Early Warnings That Reach Everyone at COP31newsx.com · 14 Nov
Found through the GDELT Project by climate words in the headline. We do not write or check these articles.
The next six months
Odds of each outcome compared with the 1993–2016 average.
December–February
February–April
In the tropics, seasonal forecasts generally have useful skill during strong El Niño years, but they give odds, not certainties. “Normal” is the middle third of the model's own 1993–2016 range. Because the climate has warmed since then, “warmer” is the usual result almost everywhere.
Source: Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) seasonal forecasts, ECMWF system 51, country average. Method
What Thailand emits, and how it makes electricity
Thailand emitted 256.5 million tonnes of carbon dioxide from fossil fuels and industry in 2025, 0.66% of the world total, or 3.6 tonnes per person. That is up 200% since 1990.
256.5 Mt
3.6 t
+200%
+22%
Electricity by source, 2025
- Coal 18%
- Gas 66%
- Other fossil <1%
- Hydro 4%
- Wind 2%
- Solar 5%
- Other renewables 6%
Source: Our World in Data, based on the Global Carbon Project, Ember and the Energy Institute (CC BY 4.0). CO2 from fossil fuels and industry; land use not included.
Smoke and haze, next 4 days
Daily average fine particles (PM2.5) on the US EPA air-quality index.
| City | Nov 15 | Nov 16 | Nov 17 | Nov 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BangkokCapital | 74Moderate | 62Moderate | 68Moderate | 79Moderate |
| Chiang Mai | 63Moderate | 65Moderate | 63Moderate | 67Moderate |
| Samut Prakan | 78Moderate | 64Moderate | 63Moderate | 72Moderate |
| Nakhon Ratchasima | 44Good | 63Moderate | 46Good | 25Good |
| Hat Yai | 41Good | 45Good | 22Good | 15Good |
AQI: US EPA 24-hour PM2.5 scale (2024). Model forecast for an area of about 40 km, not a local measurement. Local levels can be higher or lower. Dates are UTC days. Source: Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, run 2026-11-14 00 UTC.
What past El Niños did here
Each season in El Niño years compared with all other years, 1979-2025, trend removed.
| Season | Rainfall | Rainfall detail | Temperature |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec–Feb | No consistent pattern (about 23% less rain on average) | +0.5 °C | |
| Jan–Mar | Drier in 10 of 13 El Niño seasons (about 34% less rain on average) | +0.4 °C | |
| Feb–Apr | Drier in 10 of 10 El Niño seasons (about 59% less rain on average) | +0.8 °C | |
| Mar–May | Drier in 8 of 8 El Niño seasons (about 42% less rain on average) | +1.1 °C | |
| Apr–Jun | Drier in 8 of 8 El Niño seasons (about 24% less rain on average) | +0.6 °C | |
| May–Jul | Drier in 9 of 9 El Niño seasons (about 15% less rain on average) | +0.6 °C | |
| Jun–Aug | No consistent pattern (about 2% less rain on average) | +0.2 °C | |
| Jul–Sep | No consistent pattern (about 2% more rain on average) | +0.1 °C | |
| Aug–Oct | No consistent pattern (about 1% less rain on average) | +0.1 °C | |
| Sep–Nov | Drier in 11 of 15 El Niño seasons (about 12% less rain on average) | +0.3 °C | |
| Oct–Dec | Drier in 12 of 15 El Niño seasons (about 23% less rain on average) | +0.5 °C | |
| Nov–Jan | No consistent pattern (about 17% less rain on average) | +0.5 °C |
Bars: brown is drier, teal is wetter; full width is ±100%. Source: ERA5 reanalysis (Copernicus Climate Change Service); El Niño seasons from NOAA's Oceanic Niño Index. Method
What you can do
If it turns out drier
- Follow water-use notices from your local water utility, and fix leaks early.
- Farmers: check planting advice and drought bulletins from the national agriculture and weather services before the season.
- Clear dry vegetation near homes where wildfires are possible, and know your local fire-danger rating.
- Keep a few days of drinking water stored if supply cuts have happened in past dry years.
If it turns out hotter
- Check on older relatives, neighbours and anyone who lives alone during hot spells.
- Drink water regularly, and avoid hard outdoor work in the hottest hours.
- Know the signs of heat exhaustion (dizziness, headache, nausea) and when to get medical help.
Data and citation
- El Niño status: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, 12 November 2026.
- Seasonal outlook: Copernicus Climate Change Service, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) seasonal forecasts, ECMWF system 51, issued November 2026.
- Air quality: Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, run 2026-11-14 00 UTC.
- Past El Niños: ERA5 (Copernicus Climate Change Service), 1979-2025; NOAA Oceanic Niño Index.
Cite as: “Seasonal outlook for Thailand”, How's the Climate, https://howstheclimate.org/country/thailand/, updated 15 November 2026.
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