United Kingdom
There is no clear El Niño rainfall signal for the United Kingdom in December–February. The forecast and the historical record are both close to normal.
No clear signal
18% drier · 43% normal · 39% wetter
Likely warmer
63% chance of warmer than 1993–2016
No clear pattern
+5% rainfall on average, 1979-2025
56 Moderate
Worst day: Manchester, 15 November 2026
Current events in the United Kingdom
No current flood, drought, cyclone, large wildfire or unhealthy-air event is listed for the United Kingdom in our sources.
Headlines about the United Kingdom
- Halesworth solar farm faces 'Orwellian' footpath fears | East Anglian Daily Timeseadt.co.uk · 15 Nov
- New Coventry action plan will be set out to help people cope with extreme weathercoventrytelegraph.net · 15 Nov
- COP31: Canada, UK reaffirm $1.3 trillion climate finance goal, announce new commitmentsdowntoearth.org.in · 15 Nov
- New solar farm could be built in Cambridgeshire countrysidecambridge-news.co.uk · 15 Nov
- London weather Sunday November 15 as heavy rain forecastlondon-now.co.uk · 15 Nov
- American influence in battle against West Yorkshire wildfirescedarnews.net · 15 Nov
Found through the GDELT Project by climate words in the headline. We do not write or check these articles.
The next six months
Odds of each outcome compared with the 1993–2016 average.
December–February
February–April
Away from the tropics, seasonal rainfall forecasts have limited skill. Treat small shifts in the odds as weak signals. “Normal” is the middle third of the model's own 1993–2016 range. Because the climate has warmed since then, “warmer” is the usual result almost everywhere.
Source: Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) seasonal forecasts, ECMWF system 51, country average. Method
What the United Kingdom emits, and how it makes electricity
The United Kingdom emitted 319.9 million tonnes of carbon dioxide from fossil fuels and industry in 2025, 0.82% of the world total, or 4.6 tonnes per person. That is down 47% since 1990.
319.9 Mt
4.6 t
-47%
-44%
Electricity by source, 2025
- Coal <1%
- Gas 31%
- Other fossil 4%
- Nuclear 12%
- Hydro 2%
- Wind 29%
- Solar 7%
- Other renewables 14%
Source: Our World in Data, based on the Global Carbon Project, Ember and the Energy Institute (CC BY 4.0). CO2 from fossil fuels and industry; land use not included.
Smoke and haze, next 4 days
Daily average fine particles (PM2.5) on the US EPA air-quality index.
| City | Nov 15 | Nov 16 | Nov 17 | Nov 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LondonCapital | 48Good | 41Good | 19Good | 29Good |
| Birmingham | 43Good | 29Good | 16Good | 20Good |
| Manchester | 56Moderate | 49Good | 22Good | 37Good |
| Leeds | 53Moderate | 41Good | 24Good | 32Good |
| Sheffield | 53Moderate | 32Good | 16Good | 19Good |
AQI: US EPA 24-hour PM2.5 scale (2024). Model forecast for an area of about 40 km, not a local measurement. Local levels can be higher or lower. Dates are UTC days. Source: Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, run 2026-11-14 00 UTC.
What past El Niños did here
Each season in El Niño years compared with all other years, 1979-2025, trend removed.
| Season | Rainfall | Rainfall detail | Temperature |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec–Feb | No consistent pattern (about 5% more rain on average) | +0.4 °C | |
| Jan–Mar | No consistent pattern (about 1% more rain on average) | +0.1 °C | |
| Feb–Apr | No consistent pattern (about 9% more rain on average) | -0.0 °C | |
| Mar–May | Wetter in 7 of 8 El Niño seasons (about 17% more rain on average) | -0.0 °C | |
| Apr–Jun | No consistent pattern (about 5% more rain on average) | -0.1 °C | |
| May–Jul | No consistent pattern (about 4% more rain on average) | -0.1 °C | |
| Jun–Aug | Wetter in 7 of 8 El Niño seasons (about 12% more rain on average) | -0.1 °C | |
| Jul–Sep | No consistent pattern (about 3% more rain on average) | +0.1 °C | |
| Aug–Oct | No consistent pattern (about 3% less rain on average) | +0.0 °C | |
| Sep–Nov | No consistent pattern (about 2% more rain on average) | +0.2 °C | |
| Oct–Dec | Wetter in 11 of 15 El Niño seasons (about 10% more rain on average) | +0.5 °C | |
| Nov–Jan | No consistent pattern (about 12% more rain on average) | +0.6 °C |
Bars: brown is drier, teal is wetter; full width is ±100%. Source: ERA5 reanalysis (Copernicus Climate Change Service); El Niño seasons from NOAA's Oceanic Niño Index. Method
What you can do
If it turns out hotter
- Check on older relatives, neighbours and anyone who lives alone during hot spells.
- Drink water regularly, and avoid hard outdoor work in the hottest hours.
- Know the signs of heat exhaustion (dizziness, headache, nausea) and when to get medical help.
Data and citation
- El Niño status: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, 12 November 2026.
- Seasonal outlook: Copernicus Climate Change Service, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) seasonal forecasts, ECMWF system 51, issued November 2026.
- Air quality: Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, run 2026-11-14 00 UTC.
- Past El Niños: ERA5 (Copernicus Climate Change Service), 1979-2025; NOAA Oceanic Niño Index.
Cite as: “Seasonal outlook for the United Kingdom”, How's the Climate, https://howstheclimate.org/country/united-kingdom/, updated 15 November 2026.
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