Guernsey
Odds favour a wetter-than-normal December–February in Guernsey (65% chance). Past El Niño years show no consistent rainfall pattern here.
Likely wetter
8% drier · 27% normal · 65% wetter
Likely warmer
73% chance of warmer than 1993–2016
No clear pattern
+3% rainfall on average, 1979-2025
No city forecast
No major city in our air-quality list
Current events in Guernsey
No current flood, drought, cyclone, large wildfire or unhealthy-air event is listed for Guernsey in our sources.
Headlines about Guernsey
No climate headlines mentioning Guernsey were found in the last two weeks.
Found through the GDELT Project by climate words in the headline. We do not write or check these articles.
The next six months
Odds of each outcome compared with the 1993–2016 average.
December–February
February–April
Away from the tropics, seasonal rainfall forecasts have limited skill. Treat small shifts in the odds as weak signals. “Normal” is the middle third of the model's own 1993–2016 range. Because the climate has warmed since then, “warmer” is the usual result almost everywhere.
Source: Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) seasonal forecasts, ECMWF system 51, country average. Method
What past El Niños did here
Each season in El Niño years compared with all other years, 1979-2025, trend removed.
| Season | Rainfall | Rainfall detail | Temperature |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec–Feb | No consistent pattern (about 3% more rain on average) | +0.3 °C | |
| Jan–Mar | No consistent pattern (about 1% less rain on average) | -0.2 °C | |
| Feb–Apr | No consistent pattern (about 5% more rain on average) | -0.1 °C | |
| Mar–May | No consistent pattern (about 2% less rain on average) | -0.1 °C | |
| Apr–Jun | No consistent pattern (about 3% less rain on average) | -0.1 °C | |
| May–Jul | No consistent pattern (about 4% less rain on average) | -0.1 °C | |
| Jun–Aug | Wetter in 6 of 8 El Niño seasons (about 27% more rain on average) | -0.1 °C | |
| Jul–Sep | No consistent pattern (about 7% more rain on average) | +0.0 °C | |
| Aug–Oct | No consistent pattern (about 3% less rain on average) | +0.0 °C | |
| Sep–Nov | No consistent pattern (about 10% more rain on average) | +0.3 °C | |
| Oct–Dec | No consistent pattern (about 11% more rain on average) | +0.5 °C | |
| Nov–Jan | No consistent pattern (about 7% more rain on average) | +0.4 °C |
Bars: brown is drier, teal is wetter; full width is ±100%. Source: ERA5 reanalysis (Copernicus Climate Change Service); El Niño seasons from NOAA's Oceanic Niño Index. Method
What you can do
If it turns out wetter
- Find out whether your home, school or workplace is in a flood-risk area, and know your evacuation route.
- Clear gutters and drains before the rainy months.
- Keep important documents, medicines and a torch in a waterproof bag.
- After heavy rain, avoid walking or driving through flood water and follow local advice on drinking water and mosquito-borne disease.
If it turns out hotter
- Check on older relatives, neighbours and anyone who lives alone during hot spells.
- Drink water regularly, and avoid hard outdoor work in the hottest hours.
- Know the signs of heat exhaustion (dizziness, headache, nausea) and when to get medical help.
Data and citation
- El Niño status: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, 12 November 2026.
- Seasonal outlook: Copernicus Climate Change Service, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) seasonal forecasts, ECMWF system 51, issued November 2026.
- Past El Niños: ERA5 (Copernicus Climate Change Service), 1979-2025; NOAA Oceanic Niño Index.
Cite as: “Seasonal outlook for Guernsey”, How's the Climate, https://howstheclimate.org/country/guernsey/, updated 15 November 2026.
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