El Niño 2026–27
El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027 (remaining greater than a 79% chance).
Where it stands
NOAA's status is El Niño Advisory, set in its discussion of 12 November 2026.
The Oceanic Niño Index for ASO 2026 is +2.46 °C, which NOAA's scale rates as very strong. That is the highest reading since 2015.
NOAA's next update is due on 10 December 2026.
| NOAA status | El Niño Advisory |
|---|---|
| Index, ASO 2026 | +2.46 °C |
| Strength | Very strong |
| Next NOAA update | 10 December 2026 |
Clearest rainfall signals, December–February
The largest countries where the seasonal forecast most strongly favours a wetter or drier season. The forecast reflects every influence on the season, not El Niño alone.
| Country | Rainfall, December–February | Drier / normal / wetter | Temperature |
|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | Likely wetter | <5% · <5% · >95% | No clear signal |
| Cuba | Likely wetter | <5% · <5% · >95% | Likely warmer |
| Ecuador | Likely wetter | <5% · <5% · >95% | Likely warmer |
| Nicaragua | Likely drier | >95% · <5% · <5% | Likely warmer |
| Philippines | Likely drier | >95% · <5% · <5% | Likely warmer |
| Malaysia | Likely drier | 94% · 6% · <5% | Likely warmer |
| Honduras | Likely drier | 92% · 6% · <5% | Likely warmer |
| Paraguay | Likely wetter | <5% · 8% · 92% | Likely warmer |
Source: Copernicus Climate Change Service seasonal forecast, issued November 2026. World outlook map
Droughts and serious events under way
- DroughtAdvisoryDrought in New Zealand. GDACS alert level: Green. Area affected: 46,791 km2. Started 21 July 2026.GDACSUpdated 15 Nov, 05:57 UTC
- DroughtSeriousDrought in Aruba, Brazil and 6 more countries. GDACS alert level: Orange. Area affected: 1,735,191 km2. Started 21 September 2022.GDACSUpdated 15 Nov, 05:57 UTC
- CycloneSevereTropical cyclone Murasu near India. GDACS alert level: Red. Started 1 November 2026. Ended 3 November 2026.GDACSUpdated 4 Nov, 06:01 UTC
- CycloneSevereTropical cyclone Arnab near India. GDACS alert level: Red. Started 26 October 2026. Ended 28 October 2026.GDACSUpdated 29 Oct, 08:02 UTC
- CycloneSevereTropical cyclone Champi near Guam, Philippines and 3 more countries. GDACS alert level: Red. Started 14 October 2026. Ended 25 October 2026.GDACSUpdated 26 Oct, 22:00 UTC
- CycloneSeriousTropical cyclone Simon near Mexico. GDACS alert level: Orange. Started 7 October 2026. Ended 16 October 2026.GDACSUpdated 17 Oct, 17:37 UTC
232 smaller events are on the world map.
Not an official alert. Events from GDACS, NASA EONET and the Copernicus air-quality forecast. Being listed here does not mean an event was caused by El Niño.
How this El Niño compares
| Event | Peak index | Peak season | Seasons |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014–16 | +2.59 °C | NDJ 2015 | 20 |
| 2026–26 Now | +2.46 °C | ASO 2026 | 5 so far |
| 1997–98 | +2.37 °C | NDJ 1997 | 12 |
| 1982–83 | +2.14 °C | DJF 1983 | 14 |
| 2023–24 | +1.99 °C | NDJ 2023 | 11 |
The strongest El Niños since 1979 by peak Oceanic Niño Index. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center. All past events · Climate history map
Data and citation
- El Niño status and index: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, 12 November 2026.
- Seasonal outlook: Copernicus Climate Change Service, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) seasonal forecasts, ECMWF system 51.
- Events: GDACS, NASA EONET, Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service.
Cite as: “El Niño 2026–27”, How's the Climate, https://howstheclimate.org/situations/el-nino-2026-27/, version of 15 November 2026.