Nauru
Odds favour a wetter-than-normal December–February in Nauru (80% chance). That matches the past: 14 of 15 El Niño seasons since 1980 were wetter than usual here.
Likely wetter
<5% drier · 20% normal · 80% wetter
Likely warmer
>95% chance of warmer than 1993–2016
14 of 15 wetter
+91% rainfall on average, 1979-2025
No city forecast
No major city in our air-quality list
Current events in Nauru
No current flood, drought, cyclone, large wildfire or unhealthy-air event is listed for Nauru in our sources.
Headlines about Nauru
No climate headlines mentioning Nauru were found in the last two weeks.
Found through the GDELT Project by climate words in the headline. We do not write or check these articles.
The next six months
Odds of each outcome compared with the 1993–2016 average.
December–February
February–April
In the tropics, seasonal forecasts generally have useful skill during strong El Niño years, but they give odds, not certainties. “Normal” is the middle third of the model's own 1993–2016 range. Because the climate has warmed since then, “warmer” is the usual result almost everywhere. This place is smaller than one forecast grid cell, so the nearest cell is used.
Source: Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) seasonal forecasts, ECMWF system 51, country average. Method
What Nauru emits, and how it makes electricity
Nauru emitted 60 thousand tonnes of carbon dioxide from fossil fuels and industry in 2025, or 5.3 tonnes per person. That is down 49% since 1990.
0.1 Mt
5.3 t
-49%
+3%
Electricity by source, 2024
- Other fossil 80%
- Solar 20%
Source: Our World in Data, based on the Global Carbon Project, Ember and the Energy Institute (CC BY 4.0). CO2 from fossil fuels and industry; land use not included.
What past El Niños did here
Each season in El Niño years compared with all other years, 1979-2025, trend removed.
| Season | Rainfall | Rainfall detail | Temperature |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec–Feb | Wetter in 14 of 15 El Niño seasons (about 91% more rain on average) | +0.2 °C | |
| Jan–Mar | Wetter in 11 of 13 El Niño seasons (about 77% more rain on average) | +0.3 °C | |
| Feb–Apr | Wetter in 8 of 10 El Niño seasons (about 59% more rain on average) | +0.2 °C | |
| Mar–May | No consistent pattern (about 55% more rain on average) | +0.0 °C | |
| Apr–Jun | Wetter in 7 of 8 El Niño seasons (about 88% more rain on average) | -0.1 °C | |
| May–Jul | Wetter in 8 of 9 El Niño seasons (about 95% more rain on average) | -0.1 °C | |
| Jun–Aug | Wetter in 8 of 8 El Niño seasons (about 109% more rain on average) | -0.1 °C | |
| Jul–Sep | Wetter in 9 of 9 El Niño seasons (about 99% more rain on average) | -0.1 °C | |
| Aug–Oct | Wetter in 12 of 12 El Niño seasons (about 110% more rain on average) | -0.1 °C | |
| Sep–Nov | Wetter in 15 of 15 El Niño seasons (about 135% more rain on average) | -0.0 °C | |
| Oct–Dec | Wetter in 15 of 15 El Niño seasons (about 125% more rain on average) | +0.0 °C | |
| Nov–Jan | Wetter in 15 of 15 El Niño seasons (about 105% more rain on average) | +0.2 °C |
Bars: brown is drier, teal is wetter; full width is ±100%. Source: ERA5 reanalysis (Copernicus Climate Change Service); El Niño seasons from NOAA's Oceanic Niño Index. Method
What you can do
If it turns out wetter
- Find out whether your home, school or workplace is in a flood-risk area, and know your evacuation route.
- Clear gutters and drains before the rainy months.
- Keep important documents, medicines and a torch in a waterproof bag.
- After heavy rain, avoid walking or driving through flood water and follow local advice on drinking water and mosquito-borne disease.
If it turns out hotter
- Check on older relatives, neighbours and anyone who lives alone during hot spells.
- Drink water regularly, and avoid hard outdoor work in the hottest hours.
- Know the signs of heat exhaustion (dizziness, headache, nausea) and when to get medical help.
Data and citation
- El Niño status: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, 12 November 2026.
- Seasonal outlook: Copernicus Climate Change Service, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) seasonal forecasts, ECMWF system 51, issued November 2026.
- Past El Niños: ERA5 (Copernicus Climate Change Service), 1979-2025; NOAA Oceanic Niño Index.
Cite as: “Seasonal outlook for Nauru”, How's the Climate, https://howstheclimate.org/country/nauru/, updated 15 November 2026.
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