India
There is no clear El Niño rainfall signal for India in December–February. The forecast and the historical record are both close to normal.
No clear signal
25% drier · 44% normal · 31% wetter
Likely warmer
>95% chance of warmer than 1993–2016
No clear pattern
+14% rainfall on average, 1979-2025
211 Very Unhealthy
Worst day: Kolkata, 16 November 2026
Current events in India
- WildfireAdvisoryWildfire in India. GDACS alert level: Green. Burned area: 10,393 ha. Started 3 November 2026.GDACSUpdated 15 Nov, 12:35 UTC
- WildfireAdvisoryWildfire in India. GDACS alert level: Green. Burned area: 8,538 ha. Started 4 November 2026.GDACSUpdated 15 Nov, 12:33 UTC
- WildfireAdvisoryWildfire in India. GDACS alert level: Green. Burned area: 5,992 ha. Started 5 November 2026.GDACSUpdated 15 Nov, 12:27 UTC
- WildfireAdvisoryWildfire in India. GDACS alert level: Green. Burned area: 5,984 ha. Started 7 November 2026.GDACSUpdated 15 Nov, 12:20 UTC
- Air qualitySeriousUnhealthy air forecast in Kolkata, India. Reading: AQI 211 on 2026-11-16. Started 14 November 2026.Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring ServiceUpdated 14 Nov, 00:00 UTC
Not an official alert. Events from GDACS, NASA EONET and the Copernicus air-quality forecast, last 30 days.
Headlines about India
- Cyclone damage: Andhra Pradesh CM urges Central team to submit report in 10 days; State puts total loss at ₹2,484 crorethehindu.com · 15 Nov
- Odisha on alert as third cyclone in three weeks brews over Bay of Bengal | Rediff-TVrediff.com · 15 Nov
- NetNewsLedger - Bay of Bengal depression forecast to become a very severe cyclonenetnewsledger.com · 15 Nov
- Weather Forecast, November 16: Rain Alert for 12 States, Cyclonic Storm Likely Over Bay of Bengaludaipurkiran.com · 15 Nov
- NTT DATA and IIT Jammu Partner to Establish AI Center of Excellence for Climate Resilience and Tech Innovation - India Education | Latest Education Newsindiaeducationdiary.in · 15 Nov
- Why Tamil Nadu's pastoralists are demanding a voice in wildlife conservation?thehindu.com · 15 Nov
Found through the GDELT Project by climate words in the headline. We do not write or check these articles.
The next six months
Odds of each outcome compared with the 1993–2016 average.
December–February
February–April
In the tropics, seasonal forecasts generally have useful skill during strong El Niño years, but they give odds, not certainties. “Normal” is the middle third of the model's own 1993–2016 range. Because the climate has warmed since then, “warmer” is the usual result almost everywhere.
Source: Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) seasonal forecasts, ECMWF system 51, country average. Method
What India emits, and how it makes electricity
India emitted 3,203.4 million tonnes of carbon dioxide from fossil fuels and industry in 2025, 8.21% of the world total, or 2.2 tonnes per person. That is up 448% since 1990.
3,203.4 Mt
2.2 t
+448%
+171%
Electricity by source, 2025
- Coal 71%
- Gas 2%
- Other fossil <1%
- Nuclear 3%
- Hydro 9%
- Wind 5%
- Solar 9%
- Other renewables 1%
Source: Our World in Data, based on the Global Carbon Project, Ember and the Energy Institute (CC BY 4.0). CO2 from fossil fuels and industry; land use not included.
Smoke and haze, next 4 days
Daily average fine particles (PM2.5) on the US EPA air-quality index.
| City | Nov 15 | Nov 16 | Nov 17 | Nov 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New DelhiCapital | 164Unhealthy | 134Sensitive | 143Sensitive | 173Unhealthy |
| Mumbai | 153Unhealthy | 152Unhealthy | 152Unhealthy | 147Sensitive |
| Delhi | 164Unhealthy | 134Sensitive | 143Sensitive | 173Unhealthy |
| Kolkata | 199Unhealthy | 211Very unhealthy | 188Unhealthy | 165Unhealthy |
| Chennai | 94Moderate | 110Sensitive | 125Sensitive | 96Moderate |
AQI: US EPA 24-hour PM2.5 scale (2024). Model forecast for an area of about 40 km, not a local measurement. Local levels can be higher or lower. Dates are UTC days. Source: Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, run 2026-11-14 00 UTC.
What past El Niños did here
Each season in El Niño years compared with all other years, 1979-2025, trend removed.
| Season | Rainfall | Rainfall detail | Temperature |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec–Feb | No consistent pattern (about 14% more rain on average) | -0.0 °C | |
| Jan–Mar | No consistent pattern (about 15% more rain on average) | -0.2 °C | |
| Feb–Apr | Wetter in 7 of 10 El Niño seasons (about 8% more rain on average) | -0.1 °C | |
| Mar–May | No consistent pattern (about 0% less rain on average) | -0.0 °C | |
| Apr–Jun | Drier in 7 of 8 El Niño seasons (about 12% less rain on average) | -0.1 °C | |
| May–Jul | Drier in 7 of 9 El Niño seasons (about 10% less rain on average) | +0.1 °C | |
| Jun–Aug | Drier in 6 of 8 El Niño seasons (about 10% less rain on average) | +0.3 °C | |
| Jul–Sep | Drier in 8 of 9 El Niño seasons (about 12% less rain on average) | +0.3 °C | |
| Aug–Oct | Drier in 12 of 12 El Niño seasons (about 14% less rain on average) | +0.1 °C | |
| Sep–Nov | Drier in 12 of 15 El Niño seasons (about 10% less rain on average) | +0.1 °C | |
| Oct–Dec | No consistent pattern (about 2% more rain on average) | +0.1 °C | |
| Nov–Jan | Wetter in 12 of 15 El Niño seasons (about 22% more rain on average) | +0.0 °C |
Bars: brown is drier, teal is wetter; full width is ±100%. Source: ERA5 reanalysis (Copernicus Climate Change Service); El Niño seasons from NOAA's Oceanic Niño Index. Method
Known El Niño effects in India
From national agencies and the UN. Each line links to its source.
- Past events
- India also had strong rainfall deficiencies in 2002, during a much weaker El Niño. Climate.gov, 'Can We Blame El Niño?' (archived page, 2009)
What you can do
If it turns out wetter
- Find out whether your home, school or workplace is in a flood-risk area, and know your evacuation route.
- Clear gutters and drains before the rainy months.
- Keep important documents, medicines and a torch in a waterproof bag.
- After heavy rain, avoid walking or driving through flood water and follow local advice on drinking water and mosquito-borne disease.
If it turns out hotter
- Check on older relatives, neighbours and anyone who lives alone during hot spells.
- Drink water regularly, and avoid hard outdoor work in the hottest hours.
- Know the signs of heat exhaustion (dizziness, headache, nausea) and when to get medical help.
On smoky or hazy days
- Check the daily air-quality forecast and cut down hard outdoor exercise when it is 'Unhealthy' or worse.
- A well-fitted N95 or KN95 mask reduces smoke exposure; cloth and surgical masks do much less.
- Keep windows closed and use an air purifier with a HEPA filter if you have one.
- People with asthma, heart or lung disease, older people, children and pregnant people should take extra care.
Data and citation
- El Niño status: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, 12 November 2026.
- Seasonal outlook: Copernicus Climate Change Service, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) seasonal forecasts, ECMWF system 51, issued November 2026.
- Air quality: Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, run 2026-11-14 00 UTC.
- Past El Niños: ERA5 (Copernicus Climate Change Service), 1979-2025; NOAA Oceanic Niño Index.
Cite as: “Seasonal outlook for India”, The Climate Map, https://howstheclimate.org/country/india/, updated 15 November 2026.
Embed this outlook on your site
Free to use with the credit link that is built in.