Canada
The forecast leans towards a wetter-than-normal December–February in Canada (45% chance). Past El Niño years show no consistent rainfall pattern here.
Leaning wetter
14% drier · 41% normal · 45% wetter
Likely warmer
>95% chance of warmer than 1993–2016
No clear pattern
-3% rainfall on average, 1979-2025
65 Moderate
Worst day: Toronto, 18 November 2026
Current events in Canada
No current flood, drought, cyclone, large wildfire or unhealthy-air event is listed for Canada in our sources.
Headlines about Canada
- Amid climate fear, a surprise. Emissions are down for 2026stcatharinesstandard.ca · 15 Nov
- Fifth Canadian soldier dies weeks after wildfire engulfs military training exercise in Alberta - Philippine Canadian Inquirer Nationwide Filipino Newspapercanadianinquirer.net · 15 Nov
- COP31: Canada, UK reaffirm $1.3 trillion climate finance goal, announce new commitmentsdowntoearth.org.in · 15 Nov
- Manitoba ski hill racing to make flood-damage repairs before opening for seasoncbc.ca · 15 Nov
- Public can participate in air quality review of Saint John Irving plantcbc.ca · 15 Nov
- Canada's budget fuels new nuclear power with billions but bypasses faster renewables « nuclear-newsnuclear-news.net · 15 Nov
Found through the GDELT Project by climate words in the headline. We do not write or check these articles.
The next six months
Odds of each outcome compared with the 1993–2016 average.
December–February
February–April
Away from the tropics, seasonal rainfall forecasts have limited skill. Treat small shifts in the odds as weak signals. “Normal” is the middle third of the model's own 1993–2016 range. Because the climate has warmed since then, “warmer” is the usual result almost everywhere.
Source: Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) seasonal forecasts, ECMWF system 51, country average. Method
What Canada emits, and how it makes electricity
Canada emitted 547.3 million tonnes of carbon dioxide from fossil fuels and industry in 2025, 1.40% of the world total, or 13.6 tonnes per person. That is up 19% since 1990.
547.3 Mt
13.6 t
+19%
-4%
Electricity by source, 2025
- Coal 4%
- Gas 18%
- Other fossil 1%
- Nuclear 13%
- Hydro 53%
- Wind 8%
- Solar 2%
- Other renewables 2%
Source: Our World in Data, based on the Global Carbon Project, Ember and the Energy Institute (CC BY 4.0). CO2 from fossil fuels and industry; land use not included.
Smoke and haze, next 4 days
Daily average fine particles (PM2.5) on the US EPA air-quality index.
| City | Nov 15 | Nov 16 | Nov 17 | Nov 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OttawaCapital | 2Good | 7Good | 30Good | 53Moderate |
| Toronto | 8Good | 27Good | 55Moderate | 65Moderate |
| Montréal | 18Good | 16Good | 37Good | 60Moderate |
| Vancouver | 22Good | 48Good | 58Moderate | 53Moderate |
| Calgary | 23Good | 40Good | 43Good | 56Moderate |
AQI: US EPA 24-hour PM2.5 scale (2024). Model forecast for an area of about 40 km, not a local measurement. Local levels can be higher or lower. Dates are UTC days. Source: Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, run 2026-11-14 00 UTC.
What past El Niños did here
Each season in El Niño years compared with all other years, 1979-2025, trend removed.
| Season | Rainfall | Rainfall detail | Temperature |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec–Feb | No consistent pattern (about 3% less rain on average) | +1.0 °C | |
| Jan–Mar | No consistent pattern (about 3% less rain on average) | +0.6 °C | |
| Feb–Apr | No consistent pattern (about 4% less rain on average) | +1.0 °C | |
| Mar–May | No consistent pattern (about 4% less rain on average) | +0.5 °C | |
| Apr–Jun | Drier in 6 of 8 El Niño seasons (about 3% less rain on average) | -0.5 °C | |
| May–Jul | Drier in 7 of 9 El Niño seasons (about 3% less rain on average) | -0.1 °C | |
| Jun–Aug | No consistent pattern (about 0% more rain on average) | -0.1 °C | |
| Jul–Sep | No consistent pattern (about 1% more rain on average) | -0.0 °C | |
| Aug–Oct | No consistent pattern (about 2% less rain on average) | -0.5 °C | |
| Sep–Nov | No consistent pattern (about 4% less rain on average) | -0.4 °C | |
| Oct–Dec | Drier in 11 of 15 El Niño seasons (about 4% less rain on average) | +0.3 °C | |
| Nov–Jan | Drier in 11 of 15 El Niño seasons (about 3% less rain on average) | +0.7 °C |
Bars: brown is drier, teal is wetter; full width is ±100%. Source: ERA5 reanalysis (Copernicus Climate Change Service); El Niño seasons from NOAA's Oceanic Niño Index. Method
What you can do
If it turns out wetter
- Find out whether your home, school or workplace is in a flood-risk area, and know your evacuation route.
- Clear gutters and drains before the rainy months.
- Keep important documents, medicines and a torch in a waterproof bag.
- After heavy rain, avoid walking or driving through flood water and follow local advice on drinking water and mosquito-borne disease.
If it turns out hotter
- Check on older relatives, neighbours and anyone who lives alone during hot spells.
- Drink water regularly, and avoid hard outdoor work in the hottest hours.
- Know the signs of heat exhaustion (dizziness, headache, nausea) and when to get medical help.
Data and citation
- El Niño status: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, 12 November 2026.
- Seasonal outlook: Copernicus Climate Change Service, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) seasonal forecasts, ECMWF system 51, issued November 2026.
- Air quality: Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, run 2026-11-14 00 UTC.
- Past El Niños: ERA5 (Copernicus Climate Change Service), 1979-2025; NOAA Oceanic Niño Index.
Cite as: “Seasonal outlook for Canada”, The Climate Map, https://howstheclimate.org/country/canada/, updated 15 November 2026.
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