Eastern Africa
Rainfall and temperature odds for December–February, and what past El Niños did in the same season, for all 19 countries and territories.
| Country | Rainfall, December–February | Drier / normal / wetter | Past El Niños | Temperature |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burundi | Likely wetter | 16% / 25% / 59% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Comoros | No clear signal | 29% / 42% / 29% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Djibouti | Likely wetter | <5% / 43% / 55% |
11 of 15 wetter | Likely warmer |
| Eritrea | Leaning wetter | 10% / 47% / 43% |
12 of 15 wetter | Likely warmer |
| Ethiopia | Likely wetter | <5% / 27% / 71% |
13 of 15 wetter | Likely warmer |
| Kenya | Likely wetter | <5% / 27% / 71% |
11 of 15 wetter | Likely warmer |
| Madagascar | Likely drier | 53% / 25% / 22% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Malawi | Likely drier | 57% / 18% / 25% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Mauritius | No clear signal | 25% / 44% / 31% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Mozambique | Likely drier | 65% / 17% / 18% |
11 of 15 drier | Likely warmer |
| Rwanda | Likely wetter | 12% / 21% / 67% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Seychelles | Likely wetter | 10% / 37% / 53% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Somalia | Leaning wetter | 10% / 43% / 47% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Somaliland | Likely wetter | 16% / 31% / 53% |
11 of 15 wetter | Likely warmer |
| South Sudan | Leaning wetter | 24% / 33% / 43% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Tanzania | Leaning wetter | 16% / 35% / 49% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Uganda | Likely wetter | 6% / 25% / 69% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Zambia | Likely drier | 63% / 27% / 10% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Zimbabwe | Likely drier | 51% / 35% / 14% |
13 of 15 drier | Likely warmer |
Sources: Copernicus Climate Change Service (seasonal forecast, ERA5); NOAA Climate Prediction Center (El Niño seasons). Methods