Caribbean
Rainfall and temperature odds for December–February, and what past El Niños did in the same season, for all 23 countries and territories.
| Country | Rainfall, December–February | Drier / normal / wetter | Past El Niños | Temperature |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anguilla | Likely wetter | 22% / 25% / 53% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Antigua and Barbuda | No clear signal | 37% / 28% / 35% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Aruba | Likely drier | >95% / <5% / <5% |
12 of 15 drier | Likely warmer |
| Bahamas | Likely wetter | <5% / <5% / >95% |
12 of 15 wetter | Likely warmer |
| Barbados | Likely drier | 73% / 19% / 8% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| British Virgin Islands | Likely wetter | 16% / 23% / 61% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Cayman Islands | Likely wetter | <5% / <5% / >95% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Cuba | Likely wetter | <5% / <5% / >95% |
11 of 15 wetter | Likely warmer |
| Curaçao | Likely drier | >95% / <5% / <5% |
12 of 15 drier | Likely warmer |
| Dominica | Likely drier | 75% / 13% / 12% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Dominican Republic | Likely wetter | <5% / 21% / 75% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Grenada | Likely drier | 75% / 21% / <5% |
11 of 15 drier | Likely warmer |
| Haiti | Likely wetter | <5% / 10% / 90% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Jamaica | Likely wetter | <5% / 12% / 84% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Puerto Rico | Likely wetter | 24% / 21% / 55% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Saint Kitts and Nevis | No clear signal | 33% / 30% / 37% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Saint Lucia | Likely drier | 71% / 21% / 8% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Saint Vincent and the Grenadines | Likely drier | 69% / 23% / 8% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Saint-Martin | Likely wetter | 22% / 25% / 53% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Sint Maarten | Likely wetter | 22% / 25% / 53% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Trinidad and Tobago | Likely drier | 92% / 8% / <5% |
12 of 15 drier | Likely warmer |
| Turks and Caicos Islands | Likely wetter | 6% / 8% / 86% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| United States Virgin Islands | Likely wetter | 25% / 20% / 55% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
Sources: Copernicus Climate Change Service (seasonal forecast, ERA5); NOAA Climate Prediction Center (El Niño seasons). Methods