Mexico
The forecast leans towards a wetter-than-normal December–February in Mexico (47% chance). Past El Niño years show no consistent rainfall pattern here.
Leaning wetter
24% drier · 29% normal · 47% wetter
Leaning warmer
45% chance of warmer than 1993–2016
No clear pattern
+35% rainfall on average, 1979-2025
124 Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups
Worst day: Mexico City, 16 November 2026
Current events in Mexico
No current flood, drought, cyclone, large wildfire or unhealthy-air event is listed for Mexico in our sources.
Headlines about Mexico
No climate headlines mentioning Mexico were found in the last two weeks.
Found through the GDELT Project by climate words in the headline. We do not write or check these articles.
The next six months
Odds of each outcome compared with the 1993–2016 average.
December–February
February–April
In the tropics, seasonal forecasts generally have useful skill during strong El Niño years, but they give odds, not certainties. “Normal” is the middle third of the model's own 1993–2016 range. Because the climate has warmed since then, “warmer” is the usual result almost everywhere.
Source: Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) seasonal forecasts, ECMWF system 51, country average. Method
What Mexico emits, and how it makes electricity
Mexico emitted 470.9 million tonnes of carbon dioxide from fossil fuels and industry in 2025, 1.21% of the world total, or 3.6 tonnes per person. That is up 50% since 1990.
470.9 Mt
3.6 t
+50%
+2%
Electricity by source, 2025
- Coal 3%
- Gas 62%
- Other fossil 10%
- Nuclear 3%
- Hydro 8%
- Wind 6%
- Solar 7%
- Other renewables 2%
Source: Our World in Data, based on the Global Carbon Project, Ember and the Energy Institute (CC BY 4.0). CO2 from fossil fuels and industry; land use not included.
Smoke and haze, next 4 days
Daily average fine particles (PM2.5) on the US EPA air-quality index.
| City | Nov 15 | Nov 16 | Nov 17 | Nov 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico CityCapital | 93Moderate | 124Sensitive | 59Moderate | 88Moderate |
| Guadalajara | 51Moderate | 57Moderate | 65Moderate | 75Moderate |
| Monterrey | 56Moderate | 56Moderate | 33Good | 55Moderate |
| Puebla | 64Moderate | 67Moderate | 43Good | 54Moderate |
| Tijuana | 58Moderate | 60Moderate | 39Good | 49Good |
AQI: US EPA 24-hour PM2.5 scale (2024). Model forecast for an area of about 40 km, not a local measurement. Local levels can be higher or lower. Dates are UTC days. Source: Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, run 2026-11-14 00 UTC.
What past El Niños did here
Each season in El Niño years compared with all other years, 1979-2025, trend removed.
| Season | Rainfall | Rainfall detail | Temperature |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec–Feb | No consistent pattern (about 35% more rain on average) | -0.4 °C | |
| Jan–Mar | Wetter in 10 of 13 El Niño seasons (about 40% more rain on average) | -0.4 °C | |
| Feb–Apr | Wetter in 8 of 10 El Niño seasons (about 36% more rain on average) | -0.6 °C | |
| Mar–May | No consistent pattern (about 10% more rain on average) | -0.5 °C | |
| Apr–Jun | No consistent pattern (about 1% more rain on average) | -0.5 °C | |
| May–Jul | Drier in 7 of 9 El Niño seasons (about 8% less rain on average) | -0.2 °C | |
| Jun–Aug | Drier in 6 of 8 El Niño seasons (about 17% less rain on average) | +0.2 °C | |
| Jul–Sep | Drier in 8 of 9 El Niño seasons (about 17% less rain on average) | +0.3 °C | |
| Aug–Oct | Drier in 9 of 12 El Niño seasons (about 10% less rain on average) | +0.1 °C | |
| Sep–Nov | No consistent pattern (about 6% more rain on average) | -0.0 °C | |
| Oct–Dec | Wetter in 13 of 15 El Niño seasons (about 29% more rain on average) | -0.2 °C | |
| Nov–Jan | Wetter in 13 of 15 El Niño seasons (about 37% more rain on average) | -0.3 °C |
Bars: brown is drier, teal is wetter; full width is ±100%. Source: ERA5 reanalysis (Copernicus Climate Change Service); El Niño seasons from NOAA's Oceanic Niño Index. Method
What you can do
If it turns out wetter
- Find out whether your home, school or workplace is in a flood-risk area, and know your evacuation route.
- Clear gutters and drains before the rainy months.
- Keep important documents, medicines and a torch in a waterproof bag.
- After heavy rain, avoid walking or driving through flood water and follow local advice on drinking water and mosquito-borne disease.
If it turns out drier
- Follow water-use notices from your local water utility, and fix leaks early.
- Farmers: check planting advice and drought bulletins from the national agriculture and weather services before the season.
- Clear dry vegetation near homes where wildfires are possible, and know your local fire-danger rating.
- Keep a few days of drinking water stored if supply cuts have happened in past dry years.
If it turns out hotter
- Check on older relatives, neighbours and anyone who lives alone during hot spells.
- Drink water regularly, and avoid hard outdoor work in the hottest hours.
- Know the signs of heat exhaustion (dizziness, headache, nausea) and when to get medical help.
On smoky or hazy days
- Check the daily air-quality forecast and cut down hard outdoor exercise when it is 'Unhealthy' or worse.
- A well-fitted N95 or KN95 mask reduces smoke exposure; cloth and surgical masks do much less.
- Keep windows closed and use an air purifier with a HEPA filter if you have one.
- People with asthma, heart or lung disease, older people, children and pregnant people should take extra care.
Data and citation
- El Niño status: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, 12 November 2026.
- Seasonal outlook: Copernicus Climate Change Service, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) seasonal forecasts, ECMWF system 51, issued November 2026.
- Air quality: Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, run 2026-11-14 00 UTC.
- Past El Niños: ERA5 (Copernicus Climate Change Service), 1979-2025; NOAA Oceanic Niño Index.
Cite as: “Seasonal outlook for Mexico”, How's the Climate, https://howstheclimate.org/country/mexico/, updated 15 November 2026.
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