Israel
There is no clear El Niño rainfall signal for Israel in December–February. The forecast and the historical record are both close to normal.
No clear signal
33% drier · 28% normal · 39% wetter
Likely warmer
88% chance of warmer than 1993–2016
No clear pattern
+24% rainfall on average, 1979-2025
83 Moderate
Worst day: Beer Sheva, 15 November 2026
Current events in Israel
No current flood, drought, cyclone, large wildfire or unhealthy-air event is listed for Israel in our sources.
Headlines about Israel
- Respiratory illnesses rise in Gaza with worst to come as winter floods arrive, WHO sayswn.com · 15 Nov
- Hamas leader urges emergency global campaign for flood-hit Gazawn.com · 15 Nov
- Respiratory illnesses rise in Gaza with worst to come as winter floods arrivefreemalaysiatoday.com · 15 Nov
- COP31: Solidarity For Justice Award Honours Palestinian Resilience; Russia Takes Fossil Of The Daythedailyblog.co.nz · 14 Nov
- UNICEF warns of inadequate winter aid for families affected by flooding in Gazashafaqna.com · 14 Nov
- Political Restrictions Deny Palestinians Access to Major International Environmental Funding, COP31 Session Hearsenglish.pnn.ps · 14 Nov
Found through the GDELT Project by climate words in the headline. We do not write or check these articles.
The next six months
Odds of each outcome compared with the 1993–2016 average.
December–February
February–April
Away from the tropics, seasonal rainfall forecasts have limited skill. Treat small shifts in the odds as weak signals. “Normal” is the middle third of the model's own 1993–2016 range. Because the climate has warmed since then, “warmer” is the usual result almost everywhere.
Source: Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) seasonal forecasts, ECMWF system 51, country average. Method
What Israel emits, and how it makes electricity
Israel emitted 58.9 million tonnes of carbon dioxide from fossil fuels and industry in 2025, 0.15% of the world total, or 6.2 tonnes per person. That is up 61% since 1990.
58.9 Mt
6.2 t
+61%
+1%
Electricity by source, 2025
- Coal 3%
- Gas 80%
- Wind <1%
- Solar 16%
- Other renewables <1%
Source: Our World in Data, based on the Global Carbon Project, Ember and the Energy Institute (CC BY 4.0). CO2 from fossil fuels and industry; land use not included.
Smoke and haze, next 4 days
Daily average fine particles (PM2.5) on the US EPA air-quality index.
| City | Nov 15 | Nov 16 | Nov 17 | Nov 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tel AvivCapital | 77Moderate | 71Moderate | 70Moderate | 63Moderate |
| JerusalemCapital | 80Moderate | 63Moderate | 70Moderate | 58Moderate |
| Haifa | 70Moderate | 56Moderate | 56Moderate | 53Moderate |
| Beer Sheva | 83Moderate | 61Moderate | 64Moderate | 61Moderate |
| Nazareth | 83Moderate | 80Moderate | 76Moderate | 70Moderate |
AQI: US EPA 24-hour PM2.5 scale (2024). Model forecast for an area of about 40 km, not a local measurement. Local levels can be higher or lower. Dates are UTC days. Source: Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, run 2026-11-14 00 UTC.
What past El Niños did here
Each season in El Niño years compared with all other years, 1979-2025, trend removed.
| Season | Rainfall | Rainfall detail | Temperature |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec–Feb | No consistent pattern (about 24% more rain on average) | -0.2 °C | |
| Jan–Mar | No consistent pattern (about 21% more rain on average) | -0.3 °C | |
| Feb–Apr | No consistent pattern (about 23% more rain on average) | -0.3 °C | |
| Mar–May | Wetter in 6 of 8 El Niño seasons (about 11% more rain on average) | -0.6 °C | |
| Apr–Jun | No consistent pattern (about 3% less rain on average) | -0.4 °C | |
| May–Jul | No consistent pattern (about 5% more rain on average) | -0.4 °C | |
| Jun–Aug | No consistent pattern (about 6% less rain on average) | -0.2 °C | |
| Jul–Sep | No consistent pattern (about 16% more rain on average) | -0.1 °C | |
| Aug–Oct | Wetter in 9 of 12 El Niño seasons (about 60% more rain on average) | +0.1 °C | |
| Sep–Nov | Wetter in 13 of 15 El Niño seasons (about 65% more rain on average) | +0.0 °C | |
| Oct–Dec | Wetter in 13 of 15 El Niño seasons (about 46% more rain on average) | -0.2 °C | |
| Nov–Jan | Wetter in 12 of 15 El Niño seasons (about 28% more rain on average) | -0.5 °C |
Bars: brown is drier, teal is wetter; full width is ±100%. Source: ERA5 reanalysis (Copernicus Climate Change Service); El Niño seasons from NOAA's Oceanic Niño Index. Method
What you can do
If it turns out hotter
- Check on older relatives, neighbours and anyone who lives alone during hot spells.
- Drink water regularly, and avoid hard outdoor work in the hottest hours.
- Know the signs of heat exhaustion (dizziness, headache, nausea) and when to get medical help.
Data and citation
- El Niño status: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, 12 November 2026.
- Seasonal outlook: Copernicus Climate Change Service, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) seasonal forecasts, ECMWF system 51, issued November 2026.
- Air quality: Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, run 2026-11-14 00 UTC.
- Past El Niños: ERA5 (Copernicus Climate Change Service), 1979-2025; NOAA Oceanic Niño Index.
Cite as: “Seasonal outlook for Israel”, How's the Climate, https://howstheclimate.org/country/israel/, updated 15 November 2026.
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