France
The forecast shows no clear rainfall signal for December–February in France, although 11 of 15 past El Niño seasons were drier than usual here.
No clear signal
31% drier · 30% normal · 39% wetter
Likely warmer
86% chance of warmer than 1993–2016
11 of 15 drier
-11% rainfall on average, 1979-2025
52 Moderate
Worst day: Marseille, 17 November 2026
Current events in France
- FloodAdvisoryFlood in France. GDACS alert level: Green. Started 4 November 2026.GDACSUpdated 14 Nov, 10:23 UTC
Not an official alert. Events from GDACS, NASA EONET and the Copernicus air-quality forecast, last 30 days.
Headlines about France
- Montpellier floods: 100 rescued after severe storms in southern Franceconnexionfrance.com · 15 Nov
- Cop31: a bleak outlook?theweek.com · 15 Nov
- Nations grapple with loss of 1.5°C target at UN climate summitchannelnewsasia.com · 15 Nov
- Trade barriers risk holding back Africa's climate transition, UNCTAD warnscapitalethiopia.com · 15 Nov
- Australia's Bowen Urges COP31 to Sustain Climate Cooperation and Renewable Investmenteconotimes.com · 15 Nov
- EDITORIAL | COP31 must be more than another talking shoptimeslive.co.za · 15 Nov
Found through the GDELT Project by climate words in the headline. We do not write or check these articles.
The next six months
Odds of each outcome compared with the 1993–2016 average.
December–February
February–April
Away from the tropics, seasonal rainfall forecasts have limited skill. Treat small shifts in the odds as weak signals. “Normal” is the middle third of the model's own 1993–2016 range. Because the climate has warmed since then, “warmer” is the usual result almost everywhere.
Source: Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) seasonal forecasts, ECMWF system 51, country average. Method
What France emits, and how it makes electricity
France emitted 255.3 million tonnes of carbon dioxide from fossil fuels and industry in 2025, 0.66% of the world total, or 3.8 tonnes per person. That is down 35% since 1990.
255.3 Mt
3.8 t
-35%
-39%
Electricity by source, 2025
- Coal <1%
- Gas 3%
- Other fossil 2%
- Nuclear 69%
- Hydro 10%
- Wind 8%
- Solar 6%
- Other renewables 2%
Source: Our World in Data, based on the Global Carbon Project, Ember and the Energy Institute (CC BY 4.0). CO2 from fossil fuels and industry; land use not included.
Smoke and haze, next 4 days
Daily average fine particles (PM2.5) on the US EPA air-quality index.
| City | Nov 15 | Nov 16 | Nov 17 | Nov 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ParisCapital | 32Good | 31Good | 17Good | 26Good |
| Lyon | 24Good | 26Good | 26Good | 22Good |
| Marseille | 43Good | 38Good | 52Moderate | 33Good |
| Lille | 35Good | 34Good | 16Good | 21Good |
| Nice | 35Good | 27Good | 36Good | 17Good |
AQI: US EPA 24-hour PM2.5 scale (2024). Model forecast for an area of about 40 km, not a local measurement. Local levels can be higher or lower. Dates are UTC days. Source: Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, run 2026-11-14 00 UTC.
What past El Niños did here
Each season in El Niño years compared with all other years, 1979-2025, trend removed.
| Season | Rainfall | Rainfall detail | Temperature |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec–Feb | Drier in 11 of 15 El Niño seasons (about 11% less rain on average) | +0.4 °C | |
| Jan–Mar | Drier in 10 of 13 El Niño seasons (about 15% less rain on average) | -0.2 °C | |
| Feb–Apr | No consistent pattern (about 0% more rain on average) | +0.1 °C | |
| Mar–May | No consistent pattern (about 4% more rain on average) | -0.2 °C | |
| Apr–Jun | Drier in 6 of 8 El Niño seasons (about 0% more rain on average) | -0.1 °C | |
| May–Jul | No consistent pattern (about 3% less rain on average) | +0.1 °C | |
| Jun–Aug | No consistent pattern (about 3% more rain on average) | +0.1 °C | |
| Jul–Sep | No consistent pattern (about 6% less rain on average) | +0.4 °C | |
| Aug–Oct | No consistent pattern (about 3% less rain on average) | +0.4 °C | |
| Sep–Nov | No consistent pattern (about 3% more rain on average) | +0.8 °C | |
| Oct–Dec | No consistent pattern (about 3% more rain on average) | +0.8 °C | |
| Nov–Jan | No consistent pattern (about 5% less rain on average) | +0.7 °C |
Bars: brown is drier, teal is wetter; full width is ±100%. Source: ERA5 reanalysis (Copernicus Climate Change Service); El Niño seasons from NOAA's Oceanic Niño Index. Method
What you can do
If it turns out drier
- Follow water-use notices from your local water utility, and fix leaks early.
- Farmers: check planting advice and drought bulletins from the national agriculture and weather services before the season.
- Clear dry vegetation near homes where wildfires are possible, and know your local fire-danger rating.
- Keep a few days of drinking water stored if supply cuts have happened in past dry years.
If it turns out wetter
- Find out whether your home, school or workplace is in a flood-risk area, and know your evacuation route.
- Clear gutters and drains before the rainy months.
- Keep important documents, medicines and a torch in a waterproof bag.
- After heavy rain, avoid walking or driving through flood water and follow local advice on drinking water and mosquito-borne disease.
If it turns out hotter
- Check on older relatives, neighbours and anyone who lives alone during hot spells.
- Drink water regularly, and avoid hard outdoor work in the hottest hours.
- Know the signs of heat exhaustion (dizziness, headache, nausea) and when to get medical help.
Data and citation
- El Niño status: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, 12 November 2026.
- Seasonal outlook: Copernicus Climate Change Service, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) seasonal forecasts, ECMWF system 51, issued November 2026.
- Air quality: Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, run 2026-11-14 00 UTC.
- Past El Niños: ERA5 (Copernicus Climate Change Service), 1979-2025; NOAA Oceanic Niño Index.
Cite as: “Seasonal outlook for France”, How's the Climate, https://howstheclimate.org/country/france/, updated 15 November 2026.
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