Cook Islands
Odds favour a drier-than-normal December–February in the Cook Islands (over 95% chance). That matches the past: 13 of 15 El Niño seasons since 1980 were drier than usual here.
Likely drier
>95% drier · <5% normal · <5% wetter
Likely cooler
12% chance of warmer than 1993–2016
13 of 15 drier
-22% rainfall on average, 1979-2025
63 Moderate
Worst day: Avarua, 17 November 2026
Current events in the Cook Islands
- CycloneAdvisoryTropical cyclone Four near Cook Islands. GDACS alert level: Green. Started 15 November 2026.GDACSUpdated 15 Nov, 13:21 UTC
Not an official alert. Events from GDACS, NASA EONET and the Copernicus air-quality forecast, last 30 days.
Headlines about the Cook Islands
- Cook Islander leads climate mitigation talks for 39 island nations at COP31cookislandsnews.com · 14 Nov
- Cook Islands helps launch US$1 billion Pacific climate action initiative in Türkiyecookislandsnews.com · 14 Nov
Found through the GDELT Project by climate words in the headline. We do not write or check these articles.
The next six months
Odds of each outcome compared with the 1993–2016 average.
December–February
February–April
In the tropics, seasonal forecasts generally have useful skill during strong El Niño years, but they give odds, not certainties. “Normal” is the middle third of the model's own 1993–2016 range. Because the climate has warmed since then, “warmer” is the usual result almost everywhere. This place is smaller than one forecast grid cell, so the nearest cell is used.
Source: Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) seasonal forecasts, ECMWF system 51, country average. Method
What the Cook Islands emits, and how it makes electricity
The Cook Islands emitted 90 thousand tonnes of carbon dioxide from fossil fuels and industry in 2025, or 6.6 tonnes per person.
0.1 Mt
6.6 t
–
+49%
Electricity by source, 2024
- Other fossil 50%
- Solar 50%
Source: Our World in Data, based on the Global Carbon Project, Ember and the Energy Institute (CC BY 4.0). CO2 from fossil fuels and industry; land use not included.
Smoke and haze, next 4 days
Daily average fine particles (PM2.5) on the US EPA air-quality index.
| City | Nov 15 | Nov 16 | Nov 17 | Nov 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avarua | 57Moderate | 55Moderate | 63Moderate | 61Moderate |
AQI: US EPA 24-hour PM2.5 scale (2024). Model forecast for an area of about 40 km, not a local measurement. Local levels can be higher or lower. Dates are UTC days. Source: Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, run 2026-11-14 00 UTC.
What past El Niños did here
Each season in El Niño years compared with all other years, 1979-2025, trend removed.
| Season | Rainfall | Rainfall detail | Temperature |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec–Feb | Drier in 13 of 15 El Niño seasons (about 22% less rain on average) | -0.3 °C | |
| Jan–Mar | No consistent pattern (about 7% less rain on average) | -0.3 °C | |
| Feb–Apr | Drier in 7 of 10 El Niño seasons (about 16% less rain on average) | -0.4 °C | |
| Mar–May | Drier in 6 of 8 El Niño seasons (about 22% less rain on average) | -0.5 °C | |
| Apr–Jun | Drier in 6 of 8 El Niño seasons (about 30% less rain on average) | -0.4 °C | |
| May–Jul | No consistent pattern (about 4% less rain on average) | -0.3 °C | |
| Jun–Aug | No consistent pattern (about 6% more rain on average) | -0.5 °C | |
| Jul–Sep | No consistent pattern (about 4% more rain on average) | -0.6 °C | |
| Aug–Oct | No consistent pattern (about 12% more rain on average) | -0.7 °C | |
| Sep–Nov | No consistent pattern (about 11% less rain on average) | -0.7 °C | |
| Oct–Dec | Drier in 13 of 15 El Niño seasons (about 35% less rain on average) | -0.6 °C | |
| Nov–Jan | Drier in 11 of 15 El Niño seasons (about 31% less rain on average) | -0.5 °C |
Bars: brown is drier, teal is wetter; full width is ±100%. Source: ERA5 reanalysis (Copernicus Climate Change Service); El Niño seasons from NOAA's Oceanic Niño Index. Method
What you can do
If it turns out drier
- Follow water-use notices from your local water utility, and fix leaks early.
- Farmers: check planting advice and drought bulletins from the national agriculture and weather services before the season.
- Clear dry vegetation near homes where wildfires are possible, and know your local fire-danger rating.
- Keep a few days of drinking water stored if supply cuts have happened in past dry years.
If it turns out hotter
- Check on older relatives, neighbours and anyone who lives alone during hot spells.
- Drink water regularly, and avoid hard outdoor work in the hottest hours.
- Know the signs of heat exhaustion (dizziness, headache, nausea) and when to get medical help.
Data and citation
- El Niño status: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, 12 November 2026.
- Seasonal outlook: Copernicus Climate Change Service, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) seasonal forecasts, ECMWF system 51, issued November 2026.
- Air quality: Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, run 2026-11-14 00 UTC.
- Past El Niños: ERA5 (Copernicus Climate Change Service), 1979-2025; NOAA Oceanic Niño Index.
Cite as: “Seasonal outlook for the Cook Islands”, How's the Climate, https://howstheclimate.org/country/cook-is/, updated 15 November 2026.
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