Australia
Odds favour a drier-than-normal December–February in Australia (55% chance). That matches the past: 11 of 15 El Niño seasons since 1980 were drier than usual here.
Likely drier
55% drier · 25% normal · 20% wetter
Likely warmer
94% chance of warmer than 1993–2016
11 of 15 drier
-20% rainfall on average, 1979-2025
61 Moderate
Worst day: Sydney, 17 November 2026
Current events in Australia
- WildfireAdvisoryWildfire in Australia. GDACS alert level: Green. Burned area: 5,773 ha. Started 31 October 2026.GDACSUpdated 15 Nov, 12:44 UTC
- WildfireAdvisoryWildfire in Australia. GDACS alert level: Green. Burned area: 46,970 ha. Started 1 November 2026.GDACSUpdated 15 Nov, 12:42 UTC
- WildfireAdvisoryWildfire in Australia. GDACS alert level: Green. Burned area: 7,694 ha. Started 1 November 2026.GDACSUpdated 15 Nov, 12:40 UTC
- WildfireAdvisoryWildfire in Australia. GDACS alert level: Green. Burned area: 10,881 ha. Started 1 November 2026.GDACSUpdated 15 Nov, 12:40 UTC
- WildfireAdvisoryWildfire in Australia. GDACS alert level: Green. Burned area: 6,286 ha. Started 1 November 2026.GDACSUpdated 15 Nov, 12:39 UTC
Not an official alert. Events from GDACS, NASA EONET and the Copernicus air-quality forecast, last 30 days.
Headlines about Australia
- Australia and New Zealand Issue Severe Weather Warnings as Giant Hail and Flooding Threaten Travelrustourismnews.com · 15 Nov
- COP31 President Murat Kurum Seeks Decision on 1.5-Degree Riskeconotimes.com · 15 Nov
- COP31 Green Hydrogen Reality Check: $130 Billion Committed, but Only 1.7 Million Tonnes Operational as Mega Projects Face Delaysgreentechlead.com · 15 Nov
- $4.4b coal miner New Hope eyes rare $250m hybrid securities offerafr.com · 15 Nov
- Türkiye eyes ambitious climate outcome as COP31 enters final weekhurriyetdailynews.com · 15 Nov
- 'Blue sky lightning': new storm risk after swimmer hitexaminer.com.au · 15 Nov
Found through the GDELT Project by climate words in the headline. We do not write or check these articles.
The next six months
Odds of each outcome compared with the 1993–2016 average.
December–February
February–April
In the tropics, seasonal forecasts generally have useful skill during strong El Niño years, but they give odds, not certainties. “Normal” is the middle third of the model's own 1993–2016 range. Because the climate has warmed since then, “warmer” is the usual result almost everywhere.
Source: Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) seasonal forecasts, ECMWF system 51, country average. Method
What Australia emits, and how it makes electricity
Australia emitted 378.8 million tonnes of carbon dioxide from fossil fuels and industry in 2025, 0.97% of the world total, or 14.0 tonnes per person. That is up 36% since 1990.
378.8 Mt
14.0 t
+36%
-2%
Electricity by source, 2025
- Coal 43%
- Gas 16%
- Other fossil 2%
- Hydro 4%
- Wind 14%
- Solar 20%
- Other renewables 1%
Source: Our World in Data, based on the Global Carbon Project, Ember and the Energy Institute (CC BY 4.0). CO2 from fossil fuels and industry; land use not included.
Smoke and haze, next 4 days
Daily average fine particles (PM2.5) on the US EPA air-quality index.
| City | Nov 15 | Nov 16 | Nov 17 | Nov 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CanberraCapital | 8Good | 18Good | 29Good | 44Good |
| Sydney | 43Good | 43Good | 61Moderate | 53Moderate |
| Melbourne | 50Good | 54Moderate | 51Moderate | 52Moderate |
| Brisbane | 33Good | 32Good | 46Good | 55Moderate |
| Perth | 11Good | 19Good | 29Good | 42Good |
AQI: US EPA 24-hour PM2.5 scale (2024). Model forecast for an area of about 40 km, not a local measurement. Local levels can be higher or lower. Dates are UTC days. Source: Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, run 2026-11-14 00 UTC.
What past El Niños did here
Each season in El Niño years compared with all other years, 1979-2025, trend removed.
| Season | Rainfall | Rainfall detail | Temperature |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec–Feb | Drier in 11 of 15 El Niño seasons (about 20% less rain on average) | +0.6 °C | |
| Jan–Mar | No consistent pattern (about 14% less rain on average) | +0.3 °C | |
| Feb–Apr | Drier in 7 of 10 El Niño seasons (about 10% less rain on average) | +0.4 °C | |
| Mar–May | No consistent pattern (about 9% more rain on average) | +0.2 °C | |
| Apr–Jun | No consistent pattern (about 5% more rain on average) | +0.1 °C | |
| May–Jul | No consistent pattern (about 13% less rain on average) | -0.1 °C | |
| Jun–Aug | Drier in 6 of 8 El Niño seasons (about 22% less rain on average) | +0.2 °C | |
| Jul–Sep | Drier in 8 of 9 El Niño seasons (about 32% less rain on average) | +0.0 °C | |
| Aug–Oct | Drier in 10 of 12 El Niño seasons (about 36% less rain on average) | +0.2 °C | |
| Sep–Nov | Drier in 14 of 15 El Niño seasons (about 45% less rain on average) | +0.5 °C | |
| Oct–Dec | Drier in 13 of 15 El Niño seasons (about 35% less rain on average) | +0.7 °C | |
| Nov–Jan | Drier in 11 of 15 El Niño seasons (about 22% less rain on average) | +0.6 °C |
Bars: brown is drier, teal is wetter; full width is ±100%. Source: ERA5 reanalysis (Copernicus Climate Change Service); El Niño seasons from NOAA's Oceanic Niño Index. Method
Known El Niño effects in Australia
From national agencies and the UN. Each line links to its source.
- Typical pattern
El Niño often accompanies drought in eastern Australia. Climate.gov, 'Can We Blame El Niño?' (archived page, 2009)
- Past events
- In 2015, May–November rainfall in south-west Western Australia was the second lowest on record, behind 2010. Blair Trewin (Bureau of Meteorology), The Conversation, 5 Jan 2016
What you can do
If it turns out drier
- Follow water-use notices from your local water utility, and fix leaks early.
- Farmers: check planting advice and drought bulletins from the national agriculture and weather services before the season.
- Clear dry vegetation near homes where wildfires are possible, and know your local fire-danger rating.
- Keep a few days of drinking water stored if supply cuts have happened in past dry years.
If it turns out hotter
- Check on older relatives, neighbours and anyone who lives alone during hot spells.
- Drink water regularly, and avoid hard outdoor work in the hottest hours.
- Know the signs of heat exhaustion (dizziness, headache, nausea) and when to get medical help.
Data and citation
- El Niño status: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, 12 November 2026.
- Seasonal outlook: Copernicus Climate Change Service, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) seasonal forecasts, ECMWF system 51, issued November 2026.
- Air quality: Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, run 2026-11-14 00 UTC.
- Past El Niños: ERA5 (Copernicus Climate Change Service), 1979-2025; NOAA Oceanic Niño Index.
Cite as: “Seasonal outlook for Australia”, How's the Climate, https://howstheclimate.org/country/australia/, updated 15 November 2026.
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